The Denver MLS trends data for March 2020 is out. Comparing year over year (March 2019 to March 2020) is better than comparing the previous month, because we have defined seasonality trends. Now we have the coronavirus, and that is definitely having an impact on the market. With the coronavirus pandemic, we may see the average Denver home price drop in the second quarter.
Here’s the executive summary from Lon Welsh of Your Castle Real Estate:
Here’s the official MLS stats for 11 counties.
- Denver Active listings are down -8%
- There’s been a good influx of new listings
- However, there’s a lot more withdrawn than normal
- Closed sales count is down a bit
- Net, with somewhat fewer buyers, the supply / demand balance probably hasn’t materially changed
- Homes – 11%; Condos -2%
- Closed units down -5%
- This is less of a slowdown than I expected; great new here
- Denver average home price and median price up 8% from prior year
- This ties to the supply / demand balance not changing much; e.g., in the seller’s favor
- Days on market down a few days
- Also consistent with supply / demand being about the same
- Under contract were down 8%
- This is much stronger than I had expected – great news
- Homes -4%; condos -16%
- This is consistent with my observations about a week ago that entry level buyers seemed to be more cautious than the first time move up segment
- Not much change on discounts
If you just look at the luxury homes (Denver MLS defines this as >$1,000,000)
- Closed count +13%
- Price +1.5%
- DOM down -2 days
I am not sure this strength with last in the luxury market, since inventories are building.
If you look at Denver entry level homes, $300-500K
- Closed count -13%
- Price +2%
- DOM +4 days
The slowdown in this segment will last a few months, since we need to get a lot of entry level employees back to work.
Other news items:
- Most of the iBuyers have suspended operations in Denver.
- Lenders are tightening credit requirements, which may push the marginal buyer (that used to barely qualify) out of the market for a while
- This will likely be a source for 2020 having somewhat fewer closed deals than 2019